The end of the journal? What has changed, what stayed the same?

goodsThis is an approximate rendering of my comments as part of the closing panel of “The End of Scientific Journal? Transformations in Publishing” held at the Royal Society, London on 27 November 2015. It should be read as a reconstruction of what I might have said rather than an accurate record. The day had focussed on historical accounts of “journals” as mediators of both professional and popular research communications. A note of the meeting will be published. Our panel was set the question of “will the journal still exist in 2035”.

Over the course of 2015 I’ve greatly enjoyed being part of the series of meetings looking at the history of research communications and scientific journals in the past. In many cases we’ve discovered that our modern concerns, today the engagement of the wider public, the challenge of expertise, are not at all new, that many of the same issues were discussed at length in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. And then there are moments of whiplash as something incomprehensible streaks past: Pietro Corsi telling us that dictionaries were published as periodicals; Aileen Fyfe explaining that while papers given to at Royal Society meetings were then refereed, the authors could make only make “verbal” not intellectual changes to the text in response; Jon Topham telling us that chemistry and physics were characterised under literature in the journals of the early 19th century.

So if we are to answer the exam question we need to address the charge that Vanessa Heggie gave us in the first panel discussion. What has remained the same? And what has changed? If we are to learn from history then we need to hold ourselves to a high standard in trying to understand what it is (not) telling us. Prediction is always difficult, especially about the future…but it wasn’t Niels Bohr who first said that. A Dane would likely tell us that “det er svært at spÃ¥, især om fremtiden” is a quote from Storm Peterson or perhaps Piet Hein, but it probably has deeper roots. It’s easy to tell ourselves compelling stories, whether they say that “everything has changed” or that “it’s always been that way”, but actually checking and understanding the history matters.

So what has stayed the same? We’ve heard throughout today the importance of groups, communities. Of authors, of those who were (or were trying to be) amongst the small group of paid professors at UK universities. Of the distinctions between communities of amateurs and of professionals. We’ve heard about language communities, of the importance of who you know in being read at the Royal Society and of the development of journals as a means of creating research disciplines. I think this centrality of communities, of groups, of clubs is a strand that links us to the 19th century. And I think that’s true because of the nature of knowledge itself.

Knowledge is a slippery concept, and I’ve made the argument elsewhere, so for now I’ll just assert that it belongs in the bottom right quadrant of Ostrom‘s categorisation of goods. Knowledge is non-rivalrous – if I give it to you I still have it – but also excludable – I can easily prevent you from having it, by not telling you, or by locking it up behind a paywall, or simply behind impenetrable jargon. This is interesting because Buchannan‘s work on the economics of clubs show us that it is precisely the goods in this quadrant which are used to sustain clubs and make them viable.

The survival of journals, or of scholarly societies, disciplines or communities, therefore depends on how they deploy knowledge as a club good. To achieve this deployment it is necessary to make that knowledge, the club good, less exclusive, and more public. What is nice about this view is that it allows us, to borrow Aileen Fyfe’s language, to talk about “public-making” (Jan Velterop has used the old term “publicate” in a similar way) as an activity which includes public engagement, translation, and – to Rebekah Higgitt‘s point – education as well as scholarly publishing as we traditionally understand it as overlapping subsets of this broader activity.

But what has changed? I would argue that the largest change in the 20th century was one of scale. The massive increase in the scale and globalisation of the research enterprise, as well as the rise of literacy meant that traditional modes of coordination, within scholarly societies and communities, and beyond to interested publics were breaking down. To address this coordination problem we took knowledge as a club good and privatised it, introducing copyright and intellectual property as a means of engaging corporate interests to manage the coordination problem for us. It is not an accident that the scale up, the introduction of copyright and IP to scholarly publishing, and scholarly publishing becoming (for the first time) profitable all co-incide. The irony of this, is that by creating larger, and clearly defined markets, we solved the problem of market scale that troubled  early journals that needed to find both popular and expert audiences, by locking wider publics out.

The internet and the web also changed everything, but its not the cost of reproduction that most matters. The critical change for our purpose here is the change in the economics of discovery. As part of our privatisation of knowledge we parcelled it up into journals, an industrial broadcast mechanism in which one person aims with as much precision as possible to reach the right, expert, audience. The web shifts the economics of discovering expertise in a way that makes it viable to discover, not the expert who knows everything about a subject, but the person who just happens to have the right piece of knowledge to solve a specific problem.

These two trends are pulling us in opposite directions. The industrial model means creating specialisation and labelling. The creation of communities and niches that are, for publishers, markets that can be addressed individually. These communities are defined by credentialling and validation of deep expertise in a given subject. The ideas of micro-expertise, of a person with no credentials having the key information or insight radically undermines the traditional dynamics of scholarly group formation. I don’t think it is an accident that those scholarly communities that Michèle Lamont identifies as having the most stable self conception have a tendency to being the most traditional in terms of their communication and public engagement. Lamont identifies history (but not as Berris Charnley reminded me the radicals from the history of science here today!) and (North American analytical) philosophy in this group. I might add synthetic chemistry from my own experience as examples.

It is perhaps indicative of the degree of siloing that I’m a trained biochemist at a history conference, telling you about economics – two things I can’t claim any deep expertise in – and last week I gave a talk from a cultural theory perspective. I am merrily skipping across the surface of these disciplines, dipping in a little to pull out interesting connections and no-one has called me on it*. You are being forced, both by the format of this panel, and the information environment we inhabit, to assess my claims not based on my PhD thesis topic or my status or position, but on how productively my claims and ideas are clashing with yours. We discover each other, not through the silos of our disciplinary clubs and journals, but through the networked affordances that connect me to you, that in this case we could trace explicitly via Berris Charnley and Sally Shuttleworth. That sounds to me rather more like the 19th century world we’ve been hearing about today than the 20th century one that our present disciplinary cultures evolved in.

This restructuring of the economics of discovery has profound implications for our understanding of expertise. And it is our cultures of expertise that form the boundaries of our groups – our knowledge clubs – whether they be research groups, disciplines, journals, discussion meetings or scholarly societies. The web shifts our understanding of public-making. It shifts from the need to define and target the expert audience through broadcast – a one-to-audience interaction – to a many-to-many environent in which we aim to connect with the right person to discover the right contribution. The importance of the groups remains. The means by which they can, and should want to communicate has changed radically.

The challenge lies, not in giving up on our ideas of expertise, but in identifying how we can create groups that both develop shared understanding that enables effective and efficient communication internally but are also open to external contributions. It is not that defining group boundaries doesn’t matter, it is crucial, but that the shape and porosity of those boundaries needs to change. Journals have played a role throughout their history in creating groups, defining boundaries, and validating membership. That role remains important, it is just that the groups, and their cultures, will need to change to compete and survive.

We started 2015 with the idea that the journal was invented in 1665. This morning we heard from Jon Topham that the name was first used in the early 19th century, but for something that doesn’t look much like what we would call a journal today. I believe in 20 years we will still have things called journals, and they will be the means of mediating communications between groups, including professional scholars and interested publics. They’ll look very different from what we have today but their central function, of mediating and expressing identity for groups will remain.

* This is not quite true. Martin Eve has called me on skipping too lightly across the language of a set of theoretical frameworks from the humanities without doing sufficient work to completely understand them. I don’t think it is co-incidental that Martin is a cultural and literary scholar who also happens to be a technologist, computer programmer and deeply interested in policy design and implementation, as well as the intersection of symbolic and financial economies.

Abundance Thinking

Last week I was lucky enough to spend five days in North Carolina at the Triangle Scholarly Communications Institute, an Andrew W. Mellon Foundation funded initiative that brings teams together on a retreat style meeting to work on specific projects. More on that, and the work of our team, at a later date but one thing that came out of our work really struck me. When we talk about the web and the internet, particularly in the context of scholarly publishing we talk about how the shift from an environment of scarcity limited by the physical restrictions of the print world to a world of abundance. Often we focus on how thinking shaped in that old world is still limiting us today, often invoking that deity of disruption, Clayton Christenson in the process. So far so obvious.

What struck me as we prepared for our final presentations was that these narratives of scarcity don’t just limit us in the world of publication. I am lucky enough to have been to quite a few meetings where great people are sequestered together to think and discuss. These meetings always generate new ideas, exciting projects and life changing insights that somehow dissolve away as we return to our regular lives. The abundance of these focussed meetings, abundance of time, abundance of expertise, abundance of the attention of smart people gives way to the scarcity of our day to day existence. The development of these new ideas falters as it has to compete with scarce time of individuals. When time can be found it is asynchronous, and patchy. We try to make time but we never seem to be able to find the right kind of time.

Many of us reflected that it was a shame we couldn’t always work like this, focussed periods bringing groups together to do the work. But it struck me that, just as the web provides a platform, an infrastructure, that makes publication cheap, that the Mellon Foundation through the SCI Program has also provided an infrastructure that creates an abundance of time and attention. The marginal cost of each project is minimal compared to investment in the program. It is the program that makes it possible. Could the same be true of that archetypal form of scarcity in research, the grant? Could we imagine infrastructures that make the actual doing of research relatively cheap? Is that possible in a world of expensive reagents and equipment? Are the limitations that we see as so self evident real, or are they imposed by our lack of imagination?

And yet there’s also a dark side to this. It is a privilege to attend these meetings and work with these people. And I mean “privilege” with all the loaded and ambivalent connotations it has today. The language of abundance is the language of the “disruptors” of Silicon Valley, a language of techno-utopianism where, with the money you made from your dating app for Bay Area dogs you can now turn your attention to “solving someone else’s problem” with a new app or a new gadget. It can be well-meaning but it is limited. The true challenge is create the opportunities for abundance where it wasn’t before, supporting the creation of new infrastructure and platforms that truly create abundance for those who will most appreciate it. Tim O’Reilly‘s “X as a Platform” agenda pointed in this direction but in a limited context. The web is not (yet) that platform as the rumbling debate over the Wikipedia Zero program shows.

Each time I look at the question of infrastructures I feel the need to go a layer deeper, that the real solution lies underneath the problems of the layer I’m looking at. At some level this is true, but its also an illusion. The answers to questions of biology do not lie in chemistry, nor do the answers of chemistry do not lie in physics. The answers lie in finding the right level of abstraction and model building (which might be in biology, chemisty, physics or literature depending on the problem). Principles and governance systems are one form of abstraction that might help but its not the whole answer. It seems like if we could re-frame the way we think about these problems, and find new abstractions, new places to stand and see the issues we might be able to break through at least some of those that seem intractable today. How might we recognise the unexpected places where it is possible to create abundance?

If only I could find the time to think that through…